What would have happened to India's economy if Manmohan Singh had remained prime minister after the 2014 election?

 

A. No Demonetisation

I estimate India Inc would have saved an approximate ₹ 8 Lakh Crore that was gone due to Demonetization which would have become roughly ₹13 Lakh Crore today in value growth

B. INR to USD

The INR to USD would be nearer to 91 than 85 because Manmohan Singh wasn't for Central Bank Intervention. This would save us nearly ₹16 Lakh Crore of Debt.

C. Lower Debt

Estimating 50% of the Infrastructure spending under Modi, Debt based on Dr Singhs judicious spending, the Total Debt would be ₹ 137 Lakh Crore instead of nearly ₹185 Lakh Crore , Interest on debt would be ₹8.8 Lakh Crore instead of ₹14.35 Lakh Crore

D. Similar Deficit

I doubt Dr Singh had any revolutionary way to reduce deficit. So deficit would hover between 5.5% to 6% GDP

E. Larger Trade Deficit

Assuming same Ukrainian war and same Oil related bumpers, our Deficit would still be 30% more because I doubt Dr Singh would have risked burning up debt to roll over MSMEs just for show off

So instead of $ 150–160 Billion, the deficit would be $ 200–210 Billion

F. Unemployment

Unemployment would be similar as the problems are structural

G. Covid losses

I doubt MMS could have changed the outcome of the economic blow under Covid, so the same ₹31 Lakh Crore would have to be pumped out by the Centre

E. Larger disposable income

There would be lower oil prices to pay, Dr Singh would not keep oil at ₹100/- but at ₹70–72

That would get a larger disposable income

F. Robust Stock Market

We would have had a Robust stock market instead of a Bloating Whale Carcass

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So we would have had a better economy any day under Dr Singh than under Modi

Not booming but still better than under Modi

I estimate GDP would be nearer to ₹180 Lakh Crore & ₹ 315 Lakh Crore respectively in terms of CP and Nominal

I can bet our middle classes would be better off

The structural problems would of course remain